If the Allan Border medal is the credible cricket prize Australia's players and administrators would have us believe, then it must be awarded to captain Ricky Ponting this evening.
Ponting has scored more runs than any other Australia batsman in both Test matches and limited-overs internationals during the voting period (back to February 1, 2005) and has been the dominant player of the past 12 months.
No matter how much promoters try to hype up tonight's nationally televised awards ceremony, the winners appear to be far more obvious than the complex voting formula used to decide them.
Ponting's dominance with the bat against New Zealand, England, a World XI, West Indies and South Africa makes him one of the favourites to win Test player of the year.
The man most likely to pip him for the honour is leg spinner Shane Warne, who boasted a remarkable 12 months in which he snared 93 Test wickets.
Ponting will also figure prominently in voting for the limited-overs international player of the year, with fast bowler Brett Lee and batting sensation Michael Hussey also expected to poll strongly.
The reigning limited-overs champion, all rounder Andrew Symonds, is ineligible to win this year's award because he was suspended for two matches after turning up to play a match against Bangladesh in Cardiff still suffering from a late-night drinking binge.
Even though Test match votes carry a greater weight to allow players who are not selected for the abbreviated form of the game a chance of winning the overall prize (the Allan Border medal), Ponting appears assured of the honour.
Given his efforts in white and coloured clothes, he is expected to become the first player in the seven-year history of the award to win it twice.
Ponting won the title in 2004, while other winners have been Glenn McGrath (2000), Steve Waugh (2001), Matthew Hayden (2002), Adam Gilchrist (2003) and Michael Clarke (2005).
Despite his standing as one of the greatest players Australia has produced and having numerous honours, including being named by cricket bible Wisden as one of five players of the 20th Century, Warne has never won the Allan Border medal and is unlikely to do so, since he retired from limited-overs internationals.
It seems incongruous that an award recognising the most influential player in the Australian game could be won by a player who does not compete in around 50 per cent of his country's international appearances.
Former Australia coach Bob Simpson, who will be inducted into the Australian Cricket Hall of Fame tonight, urged Warne to resist any temptation to return to the 50-over game.
"I think Shane has achieved what he wants to achieve (in one-day cricket)," Simpson said yesterday.
"He's at that stage in his career where he's working harder for his wickets than he has, he's taking longer to get wickets and I think he needs to turn all his attention to the Test cricket."
Simpson, who along with late all rounder Monty Noble was voted into the prestigious Hall of Fame by a panel of cricket luminaries, claimed Warne had the potential to play at Test level beyond the age of 40.
The ex-captain and former coach, who was lured out of retirement at the outbreak of World Series Cricket to lead an inexperienced Australia Test team, was the only Australian in the past 50 years to play into his 40s. He was 42 when he played his last Test against a rampant West Indies in Jamaica in 1978.
"If Shane's prepared to keep fit, he can go until he's 40," Simpson said.
"There's not many people who have got experience in batting against spin bowling and that helps him enormously.
"He is such a great bowler that he can take advantage. There's no spin bowlers and nobody swings the ball much.
"I always thought money would keep players going past 40.
"You have got to be mentally tough and strong - and Shane is. He's a remarkable cricketer."
- ANDREW RAMSEY